Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Congress Rejects Rescue Plan

Congress Rejects Rescue Plan; Equities & USD Selloff
by Korman Tam
9/29/2008 5:40:00 PM
The dollar's fortunes reversed sharply, falling from near the 107-level against the yen to plunge to the 104-handle after it was announced that the House of Representatives voted against the $700 billion bailout plan by a vote of 228 to 205. The failure to pass the Administration's plan to purchase toxic assets off banks' balance sheets was incredibly disappointing to markets and heightens uncertainty over the outlook for the financial sector and raises the risk for the economy to plunge into a prolonged recession. US equity bourses succumbed to panic selling falling to multi-year lows, with the Dow Jones posting steep losses of 6.71% while both the Nasdaq and S&P500 plunged by over 9.14% and 8.49%, respectively. According to Congressional staffers, the earliest date for another vote to take place will be on Thursday.

US Treasury Secretary Paulson said there has been significant turmoil in the financial markets in recent days but remains committed to continue to work with regulators to protect both the financial system and economy. Paulson said the banking system was holding up very well considering the pressure, adding that he will continue to work with lawmakers as the effort to stabilize the banking system was too important to fail. He also expressed a sense of urgency, saying in spite of the "significant tools in the Treasury's tool kit", they are insufficient in bailing out the financial sector.

Global central banks continued to pump liquidity into the financial system with another bout of coordinated intervention. The Fed announced that it would be injecting another $630 billion in an effort to prevent the credit markets from locking up. In coordination with the ECB, BoE, BoJ and SNB, the Fed will bolster its swap lines to facilitate liquidity to flow more freely.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Breaking News : Bail Out Agreed

WASHINGTON - Key Republicans and Democrats reported agreement Thursday on an outline for a historic $700 billion bailout of the financial industry, but there was still resistance from rank-and-file House Republicans despite warnings of an impending panic.
"I now expect we will, indeed, have a plan that can pass the House, pass the Senate, be signed by the president and bring a sense of certainty to this crisis that is sill roiling in the market," Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, said as members of both parties emerged from a two-hour negotiating session.
Negotiators planned to present the outline at a White House meeting later Thursday with President Bush and the rivals to replace him, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barrack Obama.
"We're very confident that we can act expeditiously," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman.
Not everyone in the closed-door talks was as optimistic. Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the only House Republican in the bargaining meeting, stopped short of saying he agreed with the other lawmakers on an imminent deal.
"There was progress today," said Bachus, the senior Republican on the House Financial Services panel.
Later, he issued a statement saying he was not empowered to strike any deals and there was "no agreement other than to continue discussions."
Both houses' Republican leaders, Rep. John Boehner and Sen. Mitch McConnell, also issued statements saying there was no agreement.
Still, the White House called the announcement "a good sign that progress is being made."
"We'll want to hear from (Treasury) Secretary (Henry) Paulson and take a look at the details. We look forward to a good discussion at the meeting this afternoon," said Tony Fratto, the deputy White House press secretary.
A Treasury spokeswoman said the proposal was being reviewed there.
On Wall Street, stock prices were up late in the trading day, but not by as much as earlier in the day.
The core of the plan proposed by the administration just a few days ago envisions the government buying up sour assets of shaky financial firms in a bid to keep them from going under and to stave off a potentially severe recession.
Obama and McCain called for a bipartisan effort to deal with the crisis, little more than five weeks before national elections in which the economy has emerged as the dominant theme.
McCain on Wednesday asked Obama to agree to delay their first debate, scheduled for Friday, to deal with the meltdown. Obama said the debate should go ahead.
Congressional negotiators said Thursday there were few obstacles to a final agreement, although no details of an accord were immediately available.
"There really isn't much of a deadlock to break," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
But there were fresh signs of trouble in the House Republican Caucus. A group of GOP lawmakers circulated an alternative designed to attract private money back into the credit markets with less government intrusion.
Under that proposal, the government would provide insurance to companies that agree to hold frozen assets, rather than purchase them directly as envisioned under the administration's plan. The firms would have to pay insurance premiums to the Treasury Department for the coverage.
"The taxpayers haven't done anything wrong," said Rep Eric Cantor, R-Va., adding that rather than require them to bear the cost of the bailout, the alternative "pretty much puts the burden on Wall Street over time."
Boehner, R-Ohio, the minority leader, was huddling with McCain on the rescue. When asked whether the GOP presidential nominee could corral restive Republicans to support the plan, Boehner said, "Who knows?"
Bush told the nation in a televised address Wednesday night that passage of the package his administration has proposed was urgently needed to calm the markets and restore confidence in the reeling financial system.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Bush's agreement with Democrats on limiting pay for executives of bailed-out financial institutions and giving taxpayers an equity stake in the companies cleared a significant hurdle.
It was not immediately clear how lawmakers had resolved differences over how to phase in the unprecedented cost — a step demanded by Democrats and some Republicans who want stronger congressional control over the bailout — without spooking markets. The idea of letting the government take an ownership stake in troubled companies as part of the rescue, rather than just buying bad debt, also has been a topic of intense negotiation.
Frank told The Associated Press Thursday both elements would be included in the legislation.
Bush acknowledged Wednesday night that the bailout would be a "tough vote" for lawmakers. But he said failing to approve it would risk dire consequences for the economy and most Americans.
"Our entire economy is in danger," he said.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Bush , Congress and the Bail Out Plan

Speaking to the American public Wednesday night, President Bush indicated he's willing to work with members of Congress on a bailout plan, but he also put them in a tough spot.

In a televised address, Bush called on Congress to pass the administration's rescue plan for Wall Street, which would leave taxpayers on the hook for up to $700 billion--just before Election Day.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

High Impact Forex News : GBP CBI Realize Assets & USD Existing Home Sales



Look Out for the 2 High Impact News today:

1. CBI Realized Assets for GBP
2. Existing Home Sales for USD

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Forex News : US Bail Out Plans

US was against Bail Out Plans by countries attacked by G.Soros. Will Congress Approve the massive $700 Billion Bail Out Plan.

Bloomberg : $700 Billion Troubled Assets

Dollar Falls to Three-Week Low Versus Euro on Deficit Concern
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to a three-week low against the euro and fell versus the yen on concern a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial institutions will widen the country's budget deficit.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Forex News : The Dollar Rebounds on Govt Action

USD Rebounds on Govt Action
by Korman Tam
9/18/2008 11:00:00 PM

The dollar edged higher in early Friday trading, rising above the 106-figure versus the yen and pushing the euro lower toward the 1.42-region. A relief rally in US equity bourses reversed earlier losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the Thursday session 3.86% higher and the Nasdaq up by 4.78%. The advance in the greenback and stocks was prompted by discussions for the creation of a government-sponsored entity that would remove "the illiquid assets on bank balance sheets that are the underlying source of the current stresses in financial institutions and financial markets". In doing so, the government aims to restore confidence in the recently battered financial industry following the string of failures and halt any additional fallout on the already slumping economy.

Global central banks announced coordinated efforts to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system to alleviate "continued elevated pressures in the US dollar short-term funding markets". The BoC, BoE, ECB, SNB, BoJ and Federal Reserve increased their swap lines to provide improved liquidity in both term and overnight operations by more than $180 billion.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

GBP : Claimant Count


Claimant Count
@ 8.30 GMT.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Forex News : BOJ Meeting on Interest Rate

Forex News - Lehman Pushed The Yen Up

Yen Advances Most Against Dollar in Decade on Lehman Bankruptcy

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened the most in 10 years against the dollar after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, prompting traders to sell assets financed by loans in Japan.

Monday, September 15, 2008

The Dollar Fell

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a one-year high versus the euro after reports showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in August and prices paid to producers dropped for the first time this year.

Friday, September 12, 2008

USDJPY

Global Growth Slowdown Spark USD, JPY
by Korman Tam
9/11/2008 3:19:00 PM

The key gainers in the currency market for the Wednesday session were the yen and dollar, both advancing sharply amid heightened risk aversion over mounting fears for a global recessionary environment. Crude oil also slumped, falling to its lowest level in 8-months at $100.32 per barrel as traders continue to anticipate a slowdown in demand in the near-term, prompted by deterioration in global economic fundamentals.

The economic reports earlier in the session saw a larger than anticipated US trade deficit, which burgeoned to its highest level since March 2007. Consensus estimates were expecting the July trade deficit to increase to $58.0 billion from $56.77 billion previously, instead the deficit swelled to $62.2 billion for July versus an upwardly revised $58.84 billion deficit in the month prior. The exports component hit a record, up 3.3% to $168.15 billion compared with $162.79 billion from June, while imports also expanded to record levels, increasing by 3.9% to $230.35 billion versus $221.65 billion. The July oil import price was up 6.4% to a record $124.66 per barrel. With oil retreating sharply from the record levels in July, we look for the deficit to pull back somewhat over the coming months. Also released were weekly jobless claims, which edged up marginally to 445k from 444k a week earlier.

The dollar surged to a near one-year high against the euro at 1.3881 and a fresh 2 ½-year high versus the pound at 1.7443. Lingering fears over the scope for a recession to hit the UK in the coming months continue to drag the sterling lower. The catalyst for the sell-off was comments from BoE Board Member Blanchflower, who expressed fears that job losses may triple amid a larger than expected decline in the UK economy. Meanwhile, traders shrugged off comments from BoE Governor King, suggesting interest rates may remain on hold in the interim. King, speaking before the Treasury Committee, said that while the growth outlook had deteriorated, inflation had also increased, potentially sparking further increases in wages.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Yen Drops

Yen Falls as Advance in Stocks Boosts Demand for Higher Yields

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell the most in more than two weeks against the euro and the dollar as an increase in U.S. stocks encouraged investors to take out low-cost loans in Japan and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

Japan's currency also decreased versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars on speculation .

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

EURUSD

EUR/USD (1.4162)
European & US sessions forecast levels: 1.4045/1.4260
Trend Sessions: European: Neutral
US: Neutral

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Forex News : Yen Falls Against Dollar

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell the most in two weeks against the dollar as the U.S. government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Yen Rises US Jobs Down

Yen Rises to Highest Versus Dollar Since July as U.S. Jobs Fall
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to the highest level against the dollar since July after the U.S. lost jobs for an eighth month and touched a one-year high versus the euro as investors sold higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Japan's yen rallied against most of the world's major currencies on concern credit-market losses will lead to a global recession. The Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped to a two-year low on speculation a slump in stocks and commodities encouraged investors to reverse carry trades.
The yen rose for a third day against the dollar, increasing 0.7 percent to 106.36 at 10:31 a.m. in New York, from 107.08 yesterday. It reached 105.55, the highest since July 17. Japan's currency climbed 1.1 percent to 151.66 versus the euro, from 153.40, and touched 150.60, the highest since Aug. 17, 2007. Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.4261, compared with $1.4325. It touched $1.4196, the strongest since Oct. 24.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Non Farm Payroll - Aug 2008

Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment continued its downtrend in July with U.S. employers shaving 51,000 jobs, marking the first time since May 2002 that the economy lost jobs for seven consecutive months. The Labor Department also reported last month that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent—its highest level in more than four years—erasing all job gains made over the last year. Revisions to May and June's payrolls showed a total of 26,000 fewer jobs were lost than previously expected, bringing the number of jobs lost so far in 2008 to 463,000.

August Non Farm Payroll



LOOK OUT FOR NON FARM PAYROLL TODAY

Thursday, September 4, 2008

SHORT GBPJPY

GBPJPY
SHORT position at 193.30
STOP LOSS above 193.80 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 192.76 / 192.12
OP, SL & TP at your own risks.

Forex News : Euro Drops

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to the lowest level against the dollar in more than seven months after European reports showed retail sales and business investment dropped and crude oil extended its decline.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Dollar Rises to Highest in Almost Seven Months on Oil, Fed Cuts

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level against the euro in almost seven months as oil fell and Federal Reserve rate cuts raised speculation that the U.S. economy will outperform Europe and Asia.

The pound fell to a two-year low versus the greenback on evidence a recession in the U.K. is looming. Australia's dollar fell to the weakest level in almost a year after the country's central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2001 and said economic growth will slow.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Forex News : USDJPY Higher

JPY, USD Climbs Higher in Thin Trading
by Korman Tam
9/1/2008 1:45:00 PM

The dollar is higher across the board, strengthening past the 1.80-level against the sterling and pushing the euro to 1.4583. Despite the holiday-shortened week, with the US market closed today in observance of the Labor Day holiday, foreign exchange traders will digest a barrage of economic events including several key central bank monetary policy announcements, including the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Among the central banks, only the RBA is expected to shift policy - cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25-basis points to 7.0%. However, commentary from the BoC and ECB will be closely scrutinized for clues on whether policy changes from either central bank can be anticipated.

US economic reports due out this week consist of manufacturing ISM, durable goods orders, factory orders, weekly jobless claims, Q2 productivity, services ISM, and the August jobs report. Manufacturing ISM, due out on Tuesday at 10:00 AM, is seen slipping beneath the key 50-level to 49.9, which indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector for the month of August. Meanwhile, garnering the lion's share of market attention this week will be Friday's August jobs data. Although the unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 5.7%, the data is likely to indicate a loss of 73k jobs, greater than the 51k jobs lost from July.

GBPJPY @ 194.60

GBPJPY @ 22:30 GMT 1 Sept
SHORT position at 194.60
STOP LOSS above 195.10 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 194.06 / 193.42
OP, SL & TP at your own risks.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Dollar Falls


Dollar Falls on Speculation Oil Gains to Weaken U.S. Economy

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to the lowest in more than a week against the yen on speculation a rise in oil prices will harm the economic outlook for the world's largest energy consumer.

The dollar declined against the euro as Hurricane Gustav approached the Gulf of Mexico,