Read more at:
GBPJPY at www.smartforextraders.blogspot.com
GBPUSD at www.newforexsignals.blogspot.com
Saturday, May 31, 2008
GBPJPY . GBPUSD
Where is GBPJPY and GBPUSD heading?
Read more at:
GBPJPY at www.smartforextraders.blogspot.com
GBPUSD at www.newforexsignals.blogspot.com
Read more at:
GBPJPY at www.smartforextraders.blogspot.com
GBPUSD at www.newforexsignals.blogspot.com
USD Firms against Majors
USD Firms against Majors
by Korman Tam
5/30/2008 3:30:00 PM
The dollar relinquished some of its earlier gains versus the majors, initially strengthening to 1.5463 against the euro before settling back near the 1.5550-region. The greenback also remains firm versus the yen, maintaining its gains above the 105-level near 3-month highs just beneath 105.80.
The economic data from the US was mixed today, which included PCE, personal consumption, personal income, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. April personal consumption declined to a flat reading versus 0.1% a month earlier, while the personal income report drifted lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. Inflation, according to the PCE index, held steady with the headline reading at 3.2% y/y and 0.2% m/m. The core PCE report slipped to 0.1% from 0.2% a month earlier and at 2.1% y/y. The Chicago PMI report was slightly better than expected in May at 49.1 and improving from 48.3 a month earlier, but continued to remain beneath the key 50-level. Meanwhile, the final reading for the University of Michigan improved moderately from the initial reading to 59.8, but remains mired near its lowest levels in nearly a decade.
by Korman Tam
5/30/2008 3:30:00 PM
The dollar relinquished some of its earlier gains versus the majors, initially strengthening to 1.5463 against the euro before settling back near the 1.5550-region. The greenback also remains firm versus the yen, maintaining its gains above the 105-level near 3-month highs just beneath 105.80.
The economic data from the US was mixed today, which included PCE, personal consumption, personal income, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. April personal consumption declined to a flat reading versus 0.1% a month earlier, while the personal income report drifted lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. Inflation, according to the PCE index, held steady with the headline reading at 3.2% y/y and 0.2% m/m. The core PCE report slipped to 0.1% from 0.2% a month earlier and at 2.1% y/y. The Chicago PMI report was slightly better than expected in May at 49.1 and improving from 48.3 a month earlier, but continued to remain beneath the key 50-level. Meanwhile, the final reading for the University of Michigan improved moderately from the initial reading to 59.8, but remains mired near its lowest levels in nearly a decade.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
GBPJPY
GBPJPY
SHORT position at 208.00
STOP LOSS above 208.50 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 207.80 / 207.50 / 207.30 / 207.00
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
SHORT position at 208.00
STOP LOSS above 208.50 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 207.80 / 207.50 / 207.30 / 207.00
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
USD Buoyed on Durable Goods Orders
USD Buoyed on Durable Goods Orders
by Korman Tam
5/28/2008 2:35:00 PM
The dollar extended its gains versus the euro and yen on Wednesday, but struggled to carry over that strength against the sterling and Aussie. US economic data released earlier today propped the greenback up near the 1.56-level against the euro and 105.29 versus the yen. Durable goods orders for April surprised to the upside, with the headline figure posting a 0.5% decline and beating calls for a drop of 1% versus a 0.3% decline in March. The excluding transportation orders surged by 2.5% compared with forecasts for a 0.5% decline and up from 0.9% the previous month.
The US economic calendar for Thursday consists of Q1 GDP, core PCE and weekly jobless claims. The Q1 GDP reading is expected to improve to 0.9% from 0.6%, while the GDP deflator is seen unchanged at 2.6%. Core PCE prices are also expected to hold steady at 2.2%. Weekly jobless claims are seen creeping back up to 370k from 365k a week earlier.
Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern offered a downbeat assessment of the economy, saying the current downturn in housing appears more severe than in the early 90¡¯s. Stern said that US economic growth will likely be modest in the near-term and expects unemployment to rise somewhat. He said that overall inflation growth is clearly too rapid and attributed the increase to food and energy costs. Further, Stern tried to dissuade the assertion that energy prices and the dollar were linked.
by Korman Tam
5/28/2008 2:35:00 PM
The dollar extended its gains versus the euro and yen on Wednesday, but struggled to carry over that strength against the sterling and Aussie. US economic data released earlier today propped the greenback up near the 1.56-level against the euro and 105.29 versus the yen. Durable goods orders for April surprised to the upside, with the headline figure posting a 0.5% decline and beating calls for a drop of 1% versus a 0.3% decline in March. The excluding transportation orders surged by 2.5% compared with forecasts for a 0.5% decline and up from 0.9% the previous month.
The US economic calendar for Thursday consists of Q1 GDP, core PCE and weekly jobless claims. The Q1 GDP reading is expected to improve to 0.9% from 0.6%, while the GDP deflator is seen unchanged at 2.6%. Core PCE prices are also expected to hold steady at 2.2%. Weekly jobless claims are seen creeping back up to 370k from 365k a week earlier.
Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern offered a downbeat assessment of the economy, saying the current downturn in housing appears more severe than in the early 90¡¯s. Stern said that US economic growth will likely be modest in the near-term and expects unemployment to rise somewhat. He said that overall inflation growth is clearly too rapid and attributed the increase to food and energy costs. Further, Stern tried to dissuade the assertion that energy prices and the dollar were linked.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
GREENBACK RECOVERS
Greenback Recovers
by Korman Tam
5/27/2008 2:30:00 PM
The greenback kicked off the holiday-shortened week higher against the majors, edging up to 104.32 versus the yen and 1.5703 against the euro on the heels of mixed US economic reports earlier in the session. New home sales in April reversed an 8.5% decline in March, improving by 3.3% to 526k units. However, the Case Shiller home price index in March posted its steepest decline on record, down by 14.4% versus a 12.7% drop in February. Meanwhile, in another sign of the struggling US economy ¨C the Conference Board¡¯s May Consumer Confidence survey dropped to a two-year low and worst than expectations to 57.2 versus April at 62.3.
Economic reports slated for release on Wednesday will see April durable goods orders. Also due out this week will be Q1 core PCE, GDP, weekly jobless claims, April personal income, consumption and the May University of Michigan sentiment survey.
by Korman Tam
5/27/2008 2:30:00 PM
The greenback kicked off the holiday-shortened week higher against the majors, edging up to 104.32 versus the yen and 1.5703 against the euro on the heels of mixed US economic reports earlier in the session. New home sales in April reversed an 8.5% decline in March, improving by 3.3% to 526k units. However, the Case Shiller home price index in March posted its steepest decline on record, down by 14.4% versus a 12.7% drop in February. Meanwhile, in another sign of the struggling US economy ¨C the Conference Board¡¯s May Consumer Confidence survey dropped to a two-year low and worst than expectations to 57.2 versus April at 62.3.
Economic reports slated for release on Wednesday will see April durable goods orders. Also due out this week will be Q1 core PCE, GDP, weekly jobless claims, April personal income, consumption and the May University of Michigan sentiment survey.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
GBPJPY
GBP JPY is in a range between 204.15 and 205.80. The price should move around 204.15 – 206.50 .
GBPJPY
GBPJPY
LONG position at 205.20
STOP LOSS below 204.20 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 205.68 / 206.04
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
LONG position at 205.20
STOP LOSS below 204.20 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 205.68 / 206.04
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
US NEW HOME SALES REPORT
U.S. New Home Sales which is expected to come out at 523K. This report can move the market so we can try to trade it. 20 to 30 K deviation should be enough to move the market. If we get 499K or lower, SELL - USD/JPY, expecting a move of 35 pips. On the other hand, positive surprises have been doing better than negative surprises although I am not sure if it will be the case here this time. The most optimistic estimate is 570K. So if it comes out at 571K or higher, BUY- USD/JPY and look for 35 pips pips as well.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Saturday, May 24, 2008
EURUSD . USDJPY
Greenback Struggles vs EUR, JPY
by Korman Tam
The dollar slipped lower against the majors as surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on the currency, falling near the 1.58-level against the euro and 103 versus the yen. US equity bourses continued to struggle with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq expected to close at its worst weekly performance in over three-months. We expect the greenback to extend losses into next week with interim targets at 1.59 against the euro and 102 versus the yen.
Existing home sales data was slightly better than expected, down 1% to 4.89 million units in April versus 4.93 million units a month earlier. However, the unsold homes inventory spiked by 10.5% to 4.55 million units – its highest level since the measure was first tracked in 1999. Further reaffirming the struggles facing the housing market, the median price for existing homes dipped by 8% in April compared with a year earlier.
GBP Edges Higher
The sterling crept higher against the dollar, pushing toward 1.9850. The 2nd release of UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y. Nonetheless, economic growth remains sluggish in the UK and will likely keep the Bank of England in its current bind, with inflation creeping higher and soft growth prospects.
Cable retreated slightly, dipping near 1.9780 with support seen at 1.9740, followed by 1.97 and 1.9660. Additional floors will emerge at 1.9630, backed by 1.96 and 1.9550. On the upside, resistance is eyed at 1.98, followed by 1.9850 and 1.99. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 1.9925, backed by 1.9960 and 2.
Yen Firms
The yen advanced toward the 103-handle against the dollar amid sustained pressure in the price of oil and declines in equities. We look for USDJPY to test near the 102.60-region, which marks the neckline for a double-top formation. A breach of 102.60 paves the way for a move toward 99.50.
by Korman Tam
The dollar slipped lower against the majors as surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on the currency, falling near the 1.58-level against the euro and 103 versus the yen. US equity bourses continued to struggle with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq expected to close at its worst weekly performance in over three-months. We expect the greenback to extend losses into next week with interim targets at 1.59 against the euro and 102 versus the yen.
Existing home sales data was slightly better than expected, down 1% to 4.89 million units in April versus 4.93 million units a month earlier. However, the unsold homes inventory spiked by 10.5% to 4.55 million units – its highest level since the measure was first tracked in 1999. Further reaffirming the struggles facing the housing market, the median price for existing homes dipped by 8% in April compared with a year earlier.
GBP Edges Higher
The sterling crept higher against the dollar, pushing toward 1.9850. The 2nd release of UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y. Nonetheless, economic growth remains sluggish in the UK and will likely keep the Bank of England in its current bind, with inflation creeping higher and soft growth prospects.
Cable retreated slightly, dipping near 1.9780 with support seen at 1.9740, followed by 1.97 and 1.9660. Additional floors will emerge at 1.9630, backed by 1.96 and 1.9550. On the upside, resistance is eyed at 1.98, followed by 1.9850 and 1.99. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 1.9925, backed by 1.9960 and 2.
Yen Firms
The yen advanced toward the 103-handle against the dollar amid sustained pressure in the price of oil and declines in equities. We look for USDJPY to test near the 102.60-region, which marks the neckline for a double-top formation. A breach of 102.60 paves the way for a move toward 99.50.
CRUDE OIL PRICES
An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
By LOUISE STORY
Published: May 21, 2008
Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.
$200 a Barrel
Related Times Topics: Oil (Petroleum) and Gasoline
Managing Globalization Blog: On Oil Prices, Genius or Luck?
Associated Press
Arjun Murti at Goldman Sachs studied the 1970s’ oil spikes. One had drivers lined up at a gas station in San Jose, Calif., in 1974.
Henny Ray Abrams/Associated Press
The oil options pit at the New York Mercantile Exchange; oil prices touched $129.60 Tuesday.
Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.
That would be fine with Mr. Murti, who owns not one but two hybrid cars. “I’m actually fairly anti-oil,” says Mr. Murti, who grew up in New Jersey. “One of the biggest challenges our country faces is our addiction to oil.”
Mr. Murti is hardly alone in predicting higher oil prices. Boone Pickens, the oilman turned corporate raider, said Tuesday that crude would hit $150 this year. But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial.
Experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices. As an energy analyst at Citigroup, Tim Evans, reportedly put it, trading commodities these days is like “sticking your hand in a blender.”
Whatever the case, oil analysts like Mr. Murti have suddenly taken on the aura that enveloped technology analysts in the 1990s.
“It’s become a very fashionable area to write about,” said Kevin Norrish, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital, which began predicting high oil prices around the same time as Goldman. “And to try to get attention from people, people are coming out with all sorts of numbers.”
This was not always the case. In the 1990s, oil research was a sleepy area at banks. Many analysts assumed oil prices would hover near $15 to $20 a barrel forever. If prices rose much above those levels, they figured, consumers would start conserving, suppliers would raise production, or both, causing prices to decline.
But around the turn of the century, oil company after oil company started missing predicted production. Mr. Murti, who covers oil companies like ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy, decided to study the oil spikes of the 1970s.
Since starting his career at Petrie Parkman & Company, a Denver-based investment firm acquired by Merrill Lynch in 2006, he had been conservative in his calls on oil. But by 2004, he concluded the world was headed for a long supply shock that would push prices through the roof. That summer, as oil traded for about $40 a barrel, Mr. Murti coined what has become his signature phrase: super spike.
The following March, he drew attention by predicting prices would soar to $105, sending shock waves through the market. Angry investors questioned whether Goldman’s own oil traders benefited from the prediction. At Goldman’s annual meeting, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the bank’s chief executive and now Treasury secretary, found himself defending Mr. Murti.
“Our traders were as surprised as everyone else was,” Mr. Paulson reportedly said. “Our research department is totally independent. Our trading departments have no say about this.”
Over time, Mr. Murti was proved right again. Oil crossed $100 in February. Mr. Murti’s forecasts now feed into many of Goldman’s economic and corporate forecasts, affecting research of companies like Ford and Procter & Gamble. His research is distributed widely among investors.
“Even if you disagree with their views, the problem is that Goldman does carry so much credibility,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president for global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA. “There are a lot of traders who are going to buy based on their reports.”
His sudden fame unsettles Mr. Murti. He rarely grants interviews, citing concerns about privacy, and he declined to be photographed for this article. He is not the bank’s only gas prognosticator: Jeffrey R. Currie predicts oil prices out of London.
Mr. Murti, for his part, discounts suggestions that his reports affect market prices. “Whenever an analyst upgrades a stock or downgrades a stock, sometimes you get a reaction that day, but beyond a day, fundamentals win out,” he said.
Mr. Murti falls into the camp of oil analysts who believe that supply is likely to remain tight because of geopolitical factors. These analysts predict higher prices because production is declining in non-OPEC countries like Britain, Norway and Mexico.
The analysts who predict lower prices say there are supplies of oil that the bullish analysts are missing. “This year will be a year in which supply will be put into the market by stealth by OPEC and by countries we call black-hole countries,” said Edward L. Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. China is one example, he said.
But while oil and gas prices have been rising for a while now, Americans have only just begun to reduce gasoline consumption, so their efforts to conserve have not dragged down oil prices.
“The fact that the U.S. gasoline demand can be down and that the U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices is a monumental event,” Mr. Murti says. He spends most of his time talking to money managers and analysts, many of whom keep asking him if oil prices will stay high if speculators abandon the market, and says he applauds investors for driving up oil prices, since that will spur investment in alternative sources of energy.
High prices, he says, “send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy.” Washington should create tax incentives to encourage people to buy hybrid cars and develop more nuclear energy, he said.
Of course, if lawmakers heed his advice, oil analysts like him might one day be a thing of the past. That’s fine with Mr. Murti.
“The greatest thing in the world would be if in 15 years we no longer needed oil analysts,” he says.
More Articles in Business »
By LOUISE STORY
Published: May 21, 2008
Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.
$200 a Barrel
Related Times Topics: Oil (Petroleum) and Gasoline
Managing Globalization Blog: On Oil Prices, Genius or Luck?
Associated Press
Arjun Murti at Goldman Sachs studied the 1970s’ oil spikes. One had drivers lined up at a gas station in San Jose, Calif., in 1974.
Henny Ray Abrams/Associated Press
The oil options pit at the New York Mercantile Exchange; oil prices touched $129.60 Tuesday.
Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.
That would be fine with Mr. Murti, who owns not one but two hybrid cars. “I’m actually fairly anti-oil,” says Mr. Murti, who grew up in New Jersey. “One of the biggest challenges our country faces is our addiction to oil.”
Mr. Murti is hardly alone in predicting higher oil prices. Boone Pickens, the oilman turned corporate raider, said Tuesday that crude would hit $150 this year. But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial.
Experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices. As an energy analyst at Citigroup, Tim Evans, reportedly put it, trading commodities these days is like “sticking your hand in a blender.”
Whatever the case, oil analysts like Mr. Murti have suddenly taken on the aura that enveloped technology analysts in the 1990s.
“It’s become a very fashionable area to write about,” said Kevin Norrish, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital, which began predicting high oil prices around the same time as Goldman. “And to try to get attention from people, people are coming out with all sorts of numbers.”
This was not always the case. In the 1990s, oil research was a sleepy area at banks. Many analysts assumed oil prices would hover near $15 to $20 a barrel forever. If prices rose much above those levels, they figured, consumers would start conserving, suppliers would raise production, or both, causing prices to decline.
But around the turn of the century, oil company after oil company started missing predicted production. Mr. Murti, who covers oil companies like ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy, decided to study the oil spikes of the 1970s.
Since starting his career at Petrie Parkman & Company, a Denver-based investment firm acquired by Merrill Lynch in 2006, he had been conservative in his calls on oil. But by 2004, he concluded the world was headed for a long supply shock that would push prices through the roof. That summer, as oil traded for about $40 a barrel, Mr. Murti coined what has become his signature phrase: super spike.
The following March, he drew attention by predicting prices would soar to $105, sending shock waves through the market. Angry investors questioned whether Goldman’s own oil traders benefited from the prediction. At Goldman’s annual meeting, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the bank’s chief executive and now Treasury secretary, found himself defending Mr. Murti.
“Our traders were as surprised as everyone else was,” Mr. Paulson reportedly said. “Our research department is totally independent. Our trading departments have no say about this.”
Over time, Mr. Murti was proved right again. Oil crossed $100 in February. Mr. Murti’s forecasts now feed into many of Goldman’s economic and corporate forecasts, affecting research of companies like Ford and Procter & Gamble. His research is distributed widely among investors.
“Even if you disagree with their views, the problem is that Goldman does carry so much credibility,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president for global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA. “There are a lot of traders who are going to buy based on their reports.”
His sudden fame unsettles Mr. Murti. He rarely grants interviews, citing concerns about privacy, and he declined to be photographed for this article. He is not the bank’s only gas prognosticator: Jeffrey R. Currie predicts oil prices out of London.
Mr. Murti, for his part, discounts suggestions that his reports affect market prices. “Whenever an analyst upgrades a stock or downgrades a stock, sometimes you get a reaction that day, but beyond a day, fundamentals win out,” he said.
Mr. Murti falls into the camp of oil analysts who believe that supply is likely to remain tight because of geopolitical factors. These analysts predict higher prices because production is declining in non-OPEC countries like Britain, Norway and Mexico.
The analysts who predict lower prices say there are supplies of oil that the bullish analysts are missing. “This year will be a year in which supply will be put into the market by stealth by OPEC and by countries we call black-hole countries,” said Edward L. Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. China is one example, he said.
But while oil and gas prices have been rising for a while now, Americans have only just begun to reduce gasoline consumption, so their efforts to conserve have not dragged down oil prices.
“The fact that the U.S. gasoline demand can be down and that the U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices is a monumental event,” Mr. Murti says. He spends most of his time talking to money managers and analysts, many of whom keep asking him if oil prices will stay high if speculators abandon the market, and says he applauds investors for driving up oil prices, since that will spur investment in alternative sources of energy.
High prices, he says, “send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy.” Washington should create tax incentives to encourage people to buy hybrid cars and develop more nuclear energy, he said.
Of course, if lawmakers heed his advice, oil analysts like him might one day be a thing of the past. That’s fine with Mr. Murti.
“The greatest thing in the world would be if in 15 years we no longer needed oil analysts,” he says.
More Articles in Business »
Friday, May 23, 2008
NEWS
HOME SALES & GDP
U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out. It is expected at 4.85M. They are expecting a pretty bad number. If it comes out at 4.95 M or higher, LONG USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips of price action. If it comes out at 4.69 M, SHORT USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips as well.
UK GDP coming out. If the q/q comes out at 0.5% or higher and and y/y comes out at 2.6% or higher, LONG on GBP/USD and look for 30 pips move. With 0.6% and 2.7% numbers, you can expect much bigger move. If m/m comes out at 0.3% or lower and the y/y comes out at 2.4% or lower, SHORT GBP/USD and look for 30 pips move.
U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out. It is expected at 4.85M. They are expecting a pretty bad number. If it comes out at 4.95 M or higher, LONG USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips of price action. If it comes out at 4.69 M, SHORT USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips as well.
UK GDP coming out. If the q/q comes out at 0.5% or higher and and y/y comes out at 2.6% or higher, LONG on GBP/USD and look for 30 pips move. With 0.6% and 2.7% numbers, you can expect much bigger move. If m/m comes out at 0.3% or lower and the y/y comes out at 2.4% or lower, SHORT GBP/USD and look for 30 pips move.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
SHORT GBPJPY
GBPJPY
SHORT position at 205.90
STOP LOSS above 206.90 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 205.55 / 205.96 / 204.64
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
GBPJPY
GBPJPY
LONG position at 202.80
STOP LOSS below 201.80 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 203.40 / 203.88 / 204.36
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Fundamental News Bank Of Japan Rate Decision
MONDAY 19.05.08 GMT 01:30 AM
JPY JPY Bank Of Japan Rate Decision High 0.50% 0.50%
JPY JPY Bank Of Japan Rate Decision High 0.50% 0.50%
Friday, May 16, 2008
GBPJPY
The price should continue to move between 203.40 - 205.00 . If the support is broken then the target will be 202.20.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
FUNDAMENTAL NEWS
Thursday, May 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims together with Empire Manufacturing Survey. Both of them are significant enough to move the market.
Triggers are valid assuming there is no conflict between them. Ideally, you want to see them helping each other.
BUY
If the Empire Manufacturing comes out at +11 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 35 pips.
If it comes out at 350 K or lower, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY.
SELL
If it comes out at -11 or lower, it would be a sell signal on USD/JPY, worth 35 pips as well. If the Initial Jobless Claims comes out at 390 K or higher, that would be a good sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 35 pips.
.
Thursday, May 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production m/m coming out. You can try to use around 0.5 trigger here and make a fast scalp on it.
BUY
If it comes out at 0.2 or higher, that would be a quick buy signal on USD/JPY, looking for 20 pips or so.
SELL
If it comes out at -0.8 or lower, that would be a quick sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 20 pips as well.
Thursday, May 15th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Index coming out.
SELL
It is expected to come out at -19. If it comes out at -30 or lower, Sell USD/JPY, good for 30 to 40 pips.
BUY
If it comes out at -8 or less negative, Buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips price action as well.
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims together with Empire Manufacturing Survey. Both of them are significant enough to move the market.
Triggers are valid assuming there is no conflict between them. Ideally, you want to see them helping each other.
BUY
If the Empire Manufacturing comes out at +11 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 35 pips.
If it comes out at 350 K or lower, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY.
SELL
If it comes out at -11 or lower, it would be a sell signal on USD/JPY, worth 35 pips as well. If the Initial Jobless Claims comes out at 390 K or higher, that would be a good sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 35 pips.
.
Thursday, May 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production m/m coming out. You can try to use around 0.5 trigger here and make a fast scalp on it.
BUY
If it comes out at 0.2 or higher, that would be a quick buy signal on USD/JPY, looking for 20 pips or so.
SELL
If it comes out at -0.8 or lower, that would be a quick sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 20 pips as well.
Thursday, May 15th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Index coming out.
SELL
It is expected to come out at -19. If it comes out at -30 or lower, Sell USD/JPY, good for 30 to 40 pips.
BUY
If it comes out at -8 or less negative, Buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips price action as well.
USDJPY TODAY
USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. The price should find a resistance below 105.50. The consolidation should continue.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
GBPJPY
GBP JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. The price should continue to move in 202,00 / 205,50 range.
At 203.70 it could be a BUY position.
At 203.70 it could be a BUY position.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
GBPUSD
GBPUSD
LONG position at 1.9550
STOP LOSS below 1.9500 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9583
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
LONG position at 1.9550
STOP LOSS below 1.9500 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9583
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
Monday, May 12, 2008
GBPJPY
GBP JPY is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should find a support above 200.00. The consolidation should continue.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD
SHORT position at 1.9465
STOP LOSS below 1.9495 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9414
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
SHORT position at 1.9465
STOP LOSS below 1.9495 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9414
OP, SL & TP at your own risks
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
GBPUSD
GBPUSD
The British Pound continued bouncing against the US Dollar at the 1.9500 level downwards, which is the first and apparently good support level for the currency couple today. If the negative sentiment continues, next support is expected at 1.9410, followed by 1.9330. In upward direction first resistance is expected at 1.9600, followed by 1.9720, and 1.9780.
The British Pound continued bouncing against the US Dollar at the 1.9500 level downwards, which is the first and apparently good support level for the currency couple today. If the negative sentiment continues, next support is expected at 1.9410, followed by 1.9330. In upward direction first resistance is expected at 1.9600, followed by 1.9720, and 1.9780.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
GBPJPY
GBP JPY broke 205.50 support. GBP JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. The price should find a support above 203.50. If the support is broken then the target will be 200.00
EURUSD
EURUSD
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. it is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. Most likely it will be a no trade.
BUY
If they hike the rates, it would be a buy signal on EUR/USD, for 70 pips.
SELL
If they cut the rates, it would be a sell signal on EUR/USD, for 70 pips .
At 7:45 a.m. we will have European Interest Rate statement. it is expected they will keep the rates unchanged. Most likely it will be a no trade.
BUY
If they hike the rates, it would be a buy signal on EUR/USD, for 70 pips.
SELL
If they cut the rates, it would be a sell signal on EUR/USD, for 70 pips .
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
US PENDING HOME SALES
The greenback continues to give back last week's gains, falling just shy of the 1.56-level and 104 against the yen. The dollar remains under pressure amid soaring oil prices, with crude oil surging to another record above $122 per barrel and fresh calls oil to reach $150 to $200 barrel over the next two years.
Markets will turn to US economic data on Wednesday, which consist of Q1 labor costs, preliminary Q1 productivity and pending home sales.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales m/m. This is not a key indicator but you can try to make a few pips on it. I would use more aggressive trigger on the positive deviation. If it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY and I would look for 30 to 40 pips of a price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -4% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips move as well.
Markets will turn to US economic data on Wednesday, which consist of Q1 labor costs, preliminary Q1 productivity and pending home sales.
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales m/m. This is not a key indicator but you can try to make a few pips on it. I would use more aggressive trigger on the positive deviation. If it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY and I would look for 30 to 40 pips of a price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -4% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips move as well.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Euro Rises on Speculation ECB to Keep Rates at Six-Year High
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose against the dollar for the first time in three days on speculation the European Central Bank will keep interest rates at a six-year high this week to control inflation.
The 15-nation currency, down 3.4 percent versus the dollar after reaching a record on April 22, appreciated as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the risk of inflation is ``significant.'' The Australian and
``Hawkish tones from the ECB will keep the euro'' in demand, said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist in
The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.5456 at
The
The median forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 49.1. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
The Australian dollar advanced 0.7 percent to 94.15 U.S. cents and the
Exports of raw materials contribute about 17 percent to
Weaker Pound
The pound fell 0.6 percent to 78.66 pence against the euro, from 78.23 pence at the end of last week. The Bank of England will keep its benchmark rate at 5 percent on May 8, according to the median forecast of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Markets were closed in
The ECB will leave its main refinancing rate at 4 percent when policy makers meet May 8, according to all 53 economists in a separate Bloomberg News survey. The Federal Reserve cut the target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter- percentage point to 2 percent on April 30, the seventh reduction since September.
``The recent rebound in the dollar is unlikely to be sustained given the fundamentals,'' said Michael Klawitter, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment bank owned by Allianz SE, Europe's biggest insurer. ``As such, the euro should gain some ground, at least in the near term.''
Inflation Ceiling
Inflation will exceed the ECB's ceiling of 2 percent for a 10th year, according to the European Commission. Inflation expectations in the euro region, measured by the difference between the yields of nominal and inflation-protected bonds, increased as crude oil traded near a record and commodity prices spiraled higher.
The so-called breakeven rate on 10-year French inflation- linked notes rose to 2.33 percentage points today, from 2.08 percentage points a year ago, reflecting the rate of price growth investors expect over the next decade.
The dollar posted its second consecutive weekly advance against the euro last week on speculation the Fed will stop raising interest rates and the European economy will start to slow down.
Fed Rate
Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade on May 2 showed an 86 percent chance
Traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain versus the European currency, according to figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain, known as net shorts, was 21,315 on April 29, compared with net longs of
``We may have seen a short-term low in the euro on Friday,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in
As
The firms say pressure will mount on the Russian central bank to let the ruble appreciate to stem inflation even if it risks damping profits of oil and energy exporters, which according to Merrill Lynch fund more than half of the federal budget. The ruble rose 0.2 percent to 23.7503 against the dollar today, from 23.8012 on May 2.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD
LONG position at 1.9688
STOP LOSS below 1.9608 (-80 pips).
THE TARGETS are: 1.9703 /1.9768
OP, SL & SL at your own risks
Monday, May 5, 2008
USDJPY TODAY
Monday, May 05th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we are going to have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 49.1, and the expectation is coming down from 49.5. This indicator is getting hotter and hotter since they changed the method how they calculate the number so now this indicator more accurately predicts the future GDP. Therefore, it is a leading indicator for GDP and therefore it predicts what the Fed is going to do. I am going to use 1.0 trigger here. Last month 0.8 deviation moved USD/JPY by 44 pips, and in the previous month we had 67 pips move on 2.0 deviation. I believe we can get 40 to 50 pips move on 1.0 deviation on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and I would look for 40 to 50 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 to 50 pips as well.
At 10:00 a.m. we are going to have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 49.1, and the expectation is coming down from 49.5. This indicator is getting hotter and hotter since they changed the method how they calculate the number so now this indicator more accurately predicts the future GDP. Therefore, it is a leading indicator for GDP and therefore it predicts what the Fed is going to do. I am going to use 1.0 trigger here. Last month 0.8 deviation moved USD/JPY by 44 pips, and in the previous month we had 67 pips move on 2.0 deviation. I believe we can get 40 to 50 pips move on 1.0 deviation on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and I would look for 40 to 50 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 to 50 pips as well.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
The Dollar
Dollar Rises to Five-Week High on Below-Forecast Job Losses
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to a five-week high against the euro after a government report showed U.S. employers eliminated fewer jobs in April than economists forecast, indicating the labor market is weathering the economic slowdown.
The currency reached a two-month high against the yen and gained versus the Swiss franc and the South Korean won as traders speculated the Federal Reserve may be done reducing interest rates. The dollar is headed for a second weekly gain against the euro after the Fed cut rates on April 30 and said ``substantial'' easing since September would help foster growth.
``It's pretty likely we've seen the lows in the dollar,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in
The dollar increased 0.4 percent to $1.5406 per euro at
Fed Rate Outlook
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed an 86 percent chance that policy makers will keep the fed funds target unchanged at 2 percent when they next meet June 25, compared with 80 percent odds yesterday. The balance of bets is for a decrease of a quarter-percentage point. The Fed cut the benchmark rate from 2.25 percent this week in its seventh reduction since September.
The dollar has risen 1.5 percent against the euro this week, its biggest rally since February, and has appreciated 3.8 percent from a record low of $1.6018 reached on April 22. It's the first time the dollar has posted two weeks of gains since December. The
The yen fell 2 percent against the Brazilian real, 1.7 percent versus the South African rand and 1.6 percent against the
`Fed Is Done'
``This report reinforces that the Fed is done for the time being,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``It reinforces all the recent favorable trades out there, selling yen and buying equities.''
The pound was headed for a third weekly gain against the euro, the longest rally since May 2006, after the Bank of England said yesterday in its twice-yearly financial stability report that ``risk appetite will return gradually'' in coming months.
The European Central Bank will cut its 4 percent main refinancing rate to 3.75 percent by the end of September and 3.50 percent by year-end, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
The yield advantage of two-year German bunds over comparable-maturity Treasuries decreased to 1.37 percentage points, the narrowest since February, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors.
Payroll Report
The dollar strengthened today as the Labor Department reported that
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, touched 73.698, the highest level since March 5. The index fell to 70.698 on March 17, the lowest since its 1973 inception.
``Buy the dollar!'' said Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in
The
The currency fell 0.3 percent against the euro on April 4, when the Labor Department reported that the
Friday, May 2, 2008
NONFARM PAYROLL
NONFARM PAYROLL
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