NONFARM PAYROLL

NONFARM PAYROLL

At 8:30 we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected to come out at -75K but the expectations range from -150K to -18K. Even the most optimistic economists expects a decline on the job market. I would use conservative triggers here. If it comes out at 0K or positive, then it would be good enough to buy and hold USD/JPY, assuming there is no big conflict with the revision. In such case, you can expect 50 to 70 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -150K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, hold for a while and expect 50 to 70 pips move as well. Watch out for the unemployment rate. 0.2 is a significant deviation. If it is conflicting, be extremely careful. In general, higher unemployment rate is bad for the U.S. dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the U.S. dollar.